Economic Crystal Ball
The crystal ball shows eight macro metrics that really matter for wheel traders. Each tile has a traffic light (green / amber / red) and a plain-text hint on how to translate the value into your wheel setup.
Access: top bar -> Markt -> Economic Crystal Ball.
The eight metrics
| Tile | What does it measure? | Wheel meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Fear Index (VIX) | Expected S&P 500 swing over the next 30 days. | <15 = thin premiums. 15-25 = normal. 25-30 = fat premiums but tail risk. >30 = panic, only sell puts if you really want assignment. |
| Fear & Greed | CNN sentiment index 0-100. | <25 = extreme fear (contrarian buy zone, puts overpaid). >75 = extreme greed (correction looms, tighten CC strikes). |
| 10Y Treasury | 10-year US treasury yield. | Rising = valuation pressure, recession risk, higher CSP assignment risk. <3.5% = relaxed. >5% = alarm. |
| S&P 500 YTD | Leading index performance year-to-date. | Bull market (>+10%): roll CCs later. Bear (<-15%): smaller size, further OTM. |
| US Dollar (DXY) | External value of the US dollar. | Strong dollar (>105) = risk-off, EUR conversion of your USD premiums worse. <100 = tailwind. |
| Gold (USD/oz) | Spot price per troy ounce (GC futures) + 30-day move. | Rises in sync with VIX = real crisis. Drop = risk-on. |
| Oil WTI (USD/barrel) | WTI spot per barrel (CL futures) + 30-day move. | Spike = inflation pressure, hits consumer & tech. Crash = recession fear. |
| Bitcoin | 30-day move in percent. | Retail risk-on/off proxy. Drop together with S&P = broad risk aversion. |
Traffic-light logic
- Green = conditions favor the intended setup.
- Amber = stay alert, consider adjusting strategy.
- Red = defensive reaction recommended (smaller, further OTM, more cash).
Why "tighten covered call strikes" during greed?
When Fear & Greed > 55 (tile level "Watch" or "Risk") the tile hints at picking a CC strike closer to spot. The math behind that guidance:
Core formulas (return-if-assigned and opportunity cost):
- Return if assigned =
((strike - cost basis) + premium) / cost basis - the fixed return you lock in if the stock closes at or above the
strike at expiry.
- Opportunity cost =
(end price - strike) / cost basis- every
percent the stock closes above your strike shaves your relative performance vs. buy & hold 1:1.
Example (100 shares, cost basis $100, strike $105, premium $3):
- Return if assigned = ((105 - 100) + 3) / 100 = 8.00 % guaranteed.
- If the stock closes at $115: opportunity cost = (115 - 105) / 100 =
10 % - your stock return would have been 15 %, net you leave 7 % on the table.
Why go tighter? A strike closer to spot yields more premium and a higher assignment probability. During greed, assignment is often a clean exit near the top - you pocket the premium and redeploy the freed cash into a cash-secured put (classic wheel reset).
Delta target range:
- Fear & Greed 56-75 ("Watch"): CC strike delta 0.30 - 0.40.
- Fear & Greed > 75 ("Risk"): delta 0.40 - 0.50 (nearly ATM).
Clicking Why? on the tile shows exactly this explanation formatted in the UI - the info button works on mobile via tap as well.
Not investment advice. Delta values are self-check heuristics, not signals.
Data sources & refresh
- Quotes: yfinance (Yahoo Finance).
- Sentiment: CNN Fear & Greed (public JSON endpoint).
- Cache: 15 minutes server-side - click Refresh to bypass the cache.
Availability
- Plan gating: all logged-in plans.
- Exact thresholds and hints are in the tile tooltips.
Note: The crystal ball is a sentiment cockpit, not investment advice. It does not replace the analysis of individual names.